A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
