Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
